Noble: ‘We say potential, Israelis hear discovery’

Investors should be cautious and differentiate between concepts and reality, says chairman of gas explorer.
By Eytan Avriel Haaretz

The probability that natural gas will be found in the deepwater prospects being explored by Noble Energy and Delek Group – the Leviathan prospect – is 10% to 15%. That is a probability, which by definition does not mean “sure thing.” However, says Charles Davidson, CEO of Noble Energy, he hesitates to talk about the prospect because some people in Israel relate to announcements of potential as though they were announcements of actual discoveries.

“That worries me,” he said on a panel on oil and gas exploration at a conference of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange in London on Thursday: Oil exploration is a high-risk business.

What Noble does, Davidson said, is manage risk in a portfolio of opportunities. Investors should be cautious and differentiate between concepts and reality. Reality is the gas discovered at Tamar.

At the lowest part of the areas the partners looked at, there is the potential of oil, but – Davidson stressed – that doesn’t mean there is oil there. It has never been tested.

Systems of the type down there can produce oil, Davidson said, but one has to check whether a reservoir of trapped liquids of the type is actually there.

Gideon Tadmor, CEO of Delek Energy, fielded a question about the difference between investment in fossil-fuel exploration for the long-term, and as a speculative investment. In his view the difference lies in the company’s diversification: picking a company involved in one project is speculative. The more projects the company has, the better it is, Tadmor said.

One also has to check the company’s ability to actually do the job, Davidson added. For instance, to drill at Tamar, the partners had to bring in a rig from Africa. By the time the exploration was done, the cost had reached $300 million. Not every company could pull off a job like that.

On the geopolitical risk of drilling in Israeli territorial waters, given claims by Lebanese and Cypriot elements that they own a share, Davidson said Noble employs companies that analyze risks unrelated to the actual drilling, and in their opinion, Israel ranks well. Noble has been working in Israel for 12 years, Davidson said; obviously it feels comfortable about it.

“There are areas more problematic than Israel,” Tadmor added; Israel is relatively safe. “I see no geopolitical risk in our explorations.”

Offshore Gas Field is a ‘Monster’

Noble Energy chairman and CEO Charles Davidson expressed optimism that there will be more gas fields discovered at a press conference in Tel Aviv today.

He said, “We conducted a 3D seismic survey, which will provide very sophisticated information enabling us to know whether there are more reservoirs. We believe that there are other reserves adjacent to the Tamar and Dalit reservoirs. We’re now analyzing the results of the seismic survey. I hope that we’ll continue to find natural gas in this country. I’m optimistic about more reservoirs, whether at Leviathan or elsewhere.”

Davidson added, “Israel was the land of milk and honey in Biblical times, but in the modern era, its milk and honey and natural gas. In Israel’s deep waters, in virgin territory, a monster natural gas discovery has been made.”

Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) is a partner in the Tamar and Dalit offshore gas fields, together with Delek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG) subsidiaries Delek Drilling LP (TASE: DEDR.L) and Avner Oil and Gas LP (TASE: AVNR.L), Isramco Ltd. (Nasdaq: ISRL; TASE: ISRA.L), and Dor Alon Energy in Israel (1988) Ltd. (TASE:DRAL) subsidiary Dor Alon Energy Exploration Ltd. It is also a partner with Delek Group in the Yam Tethys partnership, which owns a natural gas field offshore from Ashkelon, and in the Leviathan prospect, west of Tamar, with Delek Group Ratio Oil Exploration (1992) LP (TASE:RATI.L).

Noble Energy convened the press conference at the Tel Aviv Hilton not only to wax poetic about biblical Israel, but to outline its program to develop its natural gas reserves in Israel. Investors are eager for any scrap of information about the Leviathan lease, where 3D seismic survey is underway, whose results are due later this month. If gas is found, the prospect’s partners will begin drilling toward the end of the year, at an estimated cost of $100 million.

Davidson said, “The company expects to drill into another large structure during the second half of the year, and to drill in the two discoveries already made during 2011.”

The statement reiterates what Noble Energy said in the conference call following the publication of its financial report for 2009 last month, without explicitly mentioning “Leviathan”. “As for Tamar, the immediate challenge is to reach an agreement with the government on how to bring the gas to shore, since seafront real estate in Israel is very expensive. One possibility is to build a new terminal, another is to use Yam Tethys’ existing infrastructure,” Davidson said.

Davidson promised that the company would meet its timetable for the Tamar well. The well’s partners are due to publish their development plan for the reservoir in the second half of the year. The plan will reportedly cost more than $2.6 billion, with gas production beginning in early 2012.

“We’ve been here for over ten years already,” said Davidson. “Noble Energy won’t be here for years, but for decades. I can’t imagine a better place to be than here.”

Noble Energy will invest $140 million in gas exploration in Israel in 2010, almost 10% of its budget.

Shares of Israeli gas and oil exploration partnerships on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) have skyrocketed by hundreds and even thousands of percent in the past year, as investors seek the next Isramco. Davidson, however, sends a clear message to investors: Be careful. “Oil and gas exploration shares were hyped last year, and I urge caution,” he said. “There is no sure thing in the energy industry, and in the end, only a few companies will succeed. There’s an upside potential in the shares of Noble Energy. I’m a long-distance runner, and I don’t comment about the market’s response over the next week or two. We’re managing projects that will last us decades. In this business, you don’t plan for days, but for the long haul.”

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news – www.globes-online.com